So how long until we know...?
It's November 6th already and we still have no confirmation on the winner of the US presidential election 2020, despite election day having been 3 days ago. So what is actually going on? Will we know soon?
So what is the situation?
“This is wholly inaccurate - saying you have won doesn't correspond to whether you actually have".
Currently, no one has been declared the winner at the time of writing. Donald Trump has declared himself the winner, as well as claiming states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan. This is wholly inaccurate - saying you have won doesn't correspond to whether you actually have. As it stands, Michigan is Joe Biden's, but Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Alaska are still unconfimed.
Right now, Biden is leading (in order of biggest to smallest majority) in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia. This leaves Trump leading in North Carolina and Alaska. The shockers are Georgia and Pennsylvania, as in my previous article's image, they are projected Republican wins.
Why is Pennsylvania suddenly important?
"We expected Pennsylvania to be a win for Trump, but it's within Biden's reach. And if he's successful, he'll be the next President."
In regards to Pennsylvania, it's a big deal because it equates to 20 electoral college ballots, which could effectively win Biden the election if declared tonight as expected. For now, Biden is sitting on 253 and Trump on 213/214 (CNN/BBC News).
As I type this, Pennsylvania has counted 95% of the vote and there is a 13,000 vote gap between Biden and Trump. Pennsylvania has said there are approximately 160,000 more ballots to count, so it could still go either way. Georgia has declared a recount as the margin between the candidates is so small, so that will also take time to do.
We expected Pennsylvania to be a win for Trump, but it's within Biden's reach. And if he's successful, he'll be the next President.
We were expecting Nevada's results 3pm GMT but they haven't confimed them yet, with 85% of the vote counted. Many assumed today would be the day we would find out the winner, with Pennsylvania having 1% of the vote left to count.
Combinations to victory
"There is the tie option. Trump would need to win Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, and Biden would need to win Georgia".
However, politics is complex. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, it's game over. It's no longer relevant whether he wins Nevada/Arizona/Georgia because he'll be sitting comfortably on 273 votes. Sure, they would sweeten the deal and give Biden a landslide victory. Despite that, if Trump wins Pennsylvania, then expect hours of waiting for Arizona and Nevada, or Georgia, as these are the combinations Biden would need to win.
Biden needs 2 out of the 4 states to win the presidency, whereas Trump needs 3 out of the 4 states. Trump also needs Pennsylvania, but it isn't crucial for Biden if he wins 2 states.
There is the tie option.
Trump would need to win Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina, and Biden would need to win Georgia.
Conclusion?
"News channels think Biden and Harris are on their way to the White House given the numbers".
At this stage, the updates are trickling in. News channels think Biden and Harris are on their way to the White House given the numbers. But the mail in ballots are yet to be counted, which are hundreds of thousands of votes that could swing the victory. This is probably unlikely, as Republicans are statistically more likely to vote on the day and Democrats are more likely to vote by mail.
All eyes are still on Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. North Carolina is expected to stay red and so is Alaska. These 4 states could change the course of American history and shape the international stage for the next 4 years.
More to come soon with updates and hopefully a result.
Biden is said to be making a statement at 1am GMT and this is expected to be a victory speech. Stay tuned.
*First image is from news channel CNN
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