US Election: The Number Crunching
Yes, I know I swore off Maths after GCSE, but if there's one reason I'll willingly do it, it's politics. I've created this little comprehensive guide for those of you scratching your heads while watching Sky News/CNN/BBC News.
Here is your fix of the numbers side of the US Election.
This first photo shows a table, which details the states and the number of electoral college votes they have. I've colour coded it too, showing the wins and projected findings.
Ok, so once you've understood the system of votes, remember that 270 votes are required to win the White House.
In this image, I've collated Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's wins and projections:
So Biden is sitting on his 223/224 (discrepancy between my calculations and the BBC's) and if he wins the projected states, he is able to win the presidency.
This is projected - anything could happen and it isn't guaranteed that it wil be these specific states.
This next image shows you Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's wins and projections:
"Neither side is conceding defeat, because we can't guess who will win yet based on all the evidence in front of us."
According to my calculations and the BBC's, Trump is sitting on 213/214 votes. If he wins his projected states, he'll be just short of the presidency.
This doesn't mean he can't win - these are all projections from the top news channels. Trump could win Biden's states and Biden could win his.
For example, it's being said that Maine is going to give Biden 3 votes and Trump 1 vote. This means that Biden would lose a vote he expected, whereas Trump would gain one that he wasn't projected. Each state is different in its rules and how it presents votes, Maine isn't a typical winner takes all state.
In terms of speeches: Trump has already claimed that it is his victory and that the election is fraudulent, blaming mail in ballots (postal vote for us Brits). Note that there are still millions of ballots that have not yet been counted, so this statement is not true at the time of this article.
Biden is expected to make a statement later this evening. Neither side is conceding defeat, because we can't guess who will win yet based on all the evidence in front of us.
"Biden has said that he and his team are on stand by and ready to fight Trump in the Supreme Court if it comes to a legal challenge."
There then comes the issue of contesting the results. Trump has said he will go to the Supreme Court to 'stop major fraud on our nation'. Biden has said that he and his team are on stand by and ready to fight
Trump in the Supreme Court if it comes to a legal challenge. Again, recounts are possible but it depends on the individual state rules. For example, in Wisconsin (an important Democratic projected win), if the difference in votes is less than 1%, there will be a recount as it is state law. Trump and Biden can appeal to states and demand recounts, depending on the margin of difference. However, if the difference is above 1% in Wisconsin, then there isn't legally a need for a recount. It is highly likely that Trump will demand one, which will cost around $3 million. Elections are hugely costly to run, remember, and this one has a hefty price tag with the numbers of predicted recounts, as well as any legal fees for the Surpeme Court.
Both sides are remaining publicly confident about winning the election. It is still very much all to play for. Trump has Ohio and Florida, the states that usually come with the presidency. However, states like Pennsylvania could change everything for either candidate.
Stay tuned. Figures are changing even as I type this - I recommend BBC News for a quick look to see where things are.
*Please note the table is not my own but from the website which is linked above. I have colour coded it and used it to then create my resources.
*The recommendation is not a sponsorship or ad, but a helpful tip for keeping up to date with election news.
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